Global Coffee Market Faces Tariff Concerns Amid Record Production in 2025

Tariff Concerns Impact Brazilian Coffee Prices

On August 7, 2025, Arabica coffee futures declined by 1.77% and Robusta by 0.53% following announcements of a proposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports. This policy threatens to reduce Brazil’s shipments to the U.S., potentially increasing domestic stockpiles and applying downward pressure on global coffee prices. Notably, Arabica stocks are at a 14.5-month low, while Robusta inventories have risen to a one-year high, indicating contrasting inventory dynamics for these key coffee types (Qahwa World, 2025-08-07).

Record Global Coffee Production Forecast for 2025/26

Despite tariff uncertainties, global coffee production is forecasted to reach a record 178.68 million bags in the 2025/26 season, a 2.5% increase from the previous year. June 2025 exports rose 7.3% year-over-year to 11.69 million bags, although cumulative exports from October 2024 to June 2025 decreased marginally by 0.2% (International Coffee Organization, 2025-08-07).

Robust Market Growth Driven by Consumption and Premiumization

The global coffee market continues robust growth, with total revenue projected at USD 473.1 billion in 2025. At-home consumption is expected to generate USD 96.45 billion, while out-of-home sales in restaurants and cafés are forecasted at USD 376.7 billion. The market is predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.9% through 2029, driven by shifting consumer preferences, convenience trends, and premium product demand (GourmetPro, 2025-05-27; Research and Markets, 2025-01-01).

Emerging Coffee Industry Trends: Sustainability and Functional Brews

Industry experts highlight key trends shaping coffee consumption in 2025, including a strong focus on sustainability, with cafés adopting reusable cups, compostable materials, and energy-efficient designs to appeal to eco-conscious consumers. Transparent sourcing practices emphasizing origin stories and local roasting are increasingly important for building consumer trust. Additionally, functional brews such as mushroom coffee and adaptogen-infused drinks are gaining popularity, especially among younger consumers seeking wellness benefits (Drink Ripples, 2025-07-02).

AI and Specialty Coffee Propel Market Expansion

The coffee market is also benefiting from innovations such as AI-driven precision agriculture, which optimizes crop health and quality. Specialty and premium coffees continue to gain market share, particularly in Europe, which accounted for 34% of the global market in 2024. The rise of specialty coffee shops and e-commerce platforms further accelerates growth (Precedence Research, 2025-08-11).

Price Pressures and Industry Adaptations

Experts anticipate sustained higher coffee prices throughout 2025 due to supply challenges and tariff impacts. Roasters and coffee shops are expected to raise prices gradually while seeking operational efficiencies to manage costs and maintain consumer demand. Meanwhile, Latin American producers are exploring diversification of export markets beyond the U.S., potentially shifting trade flows toward Europe and Asia (Fresh Cup, 2025-06-06).

Disclaimer: This press review reports data and trends from third-party published sources. CoffeeBI is not responsible for the accuracy of the figures or the content of the original articles. For further insights or tailored analysis on the topic, feel free to contact CoffeeBI.