Coffee Prices Dip as Vietnam Sets Export Records Amid U.S.-Brazil Tariff Impact

Vietnam Coffee Exports Reach Record Highs in 2025

Vietnam’s coffee industry is experiencing a breakthrough year with exports reaching 1.2 million tons worth $6.42 billion in the first eight months of 2025, marking an 8.7% volume increase and a 59.1% rise in value year-on-year. The export earnings are projected to approach $8 billion in the 2024-2025 crop year, surpassing the previous record of $5.6 billion in 2024. This growth is attributed to improved quality, specialty coffee expansion, sustainability certifications, and adherence to international standards. Top export markets include Germany, Italy, and Spain, with exports to Mexico surging over 90-fold and shipments to China growing 11.7%. Private sector investments in processing technology and supply chain transparency have enhanced the competitiveness of Vietnamese Robusta coffee globally (The Investor Vietnam, 6 September 2025).

Domestic Coffee Prices Slightly Decline Amid Global Market Fluctuations

Despite record export volumes, domestic coffee prices in Vietnam’s key growing regions such as Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai, and Lam Dong have decreased slightly by 300 to 600 VND per kilogram, bringing prices to a range of 114,000 to 115,000 VND/kg. The market outlook remains cautiously positive due to strong export demand, limited supply in major producing countries, and concerns over new U.S. tax policies impacting imports. The Coffee and Cocoa Association has recommended removing VAT on green coffee beans to ease financial burdens on producers and exporters (Vietnam News, 6 September 2025).

Global Coffee Market Faces Volatility from U.S.-Brazil Tariff Dispute

The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports starting August 6, 2025, escalating trade tensions and creating a 60% effective tariff barrier. This has disrupted supply chains and forced Brazil to pivot toward Chinese markets, although regulatory challenges limit immediate gains. U.S. buyers are seeking alternatives in Central America and other regions, while traders face price volatility and supply uncertainties. Brazil’s 2025/26 Arabica crop is forecast to decline 11.2% to 35.2 million bags amid weather risks, although overall production may rise due to improved productivity. Arabica inventories remain low, supporting price strength despite recent slight price dips (Ainvest, 6 September 2025; Nasdaq, 4 September 2025).

Industry-Wide Market Trends and Growth Prospects

The global coffee market continues to expand robustly, with at-home consumption revenue expected to reach $96.45 billion in 2025 and out-of-home revenue $376.7 billion. Younger demographics, café culture growth in emerging markets, and geographic expansion in Asia and Eastern Europe are driving demand. Innovation and supply chain resilience remain critical to managing rising costs and climate-related production risks (GourmetPro, 6 September 2025).

Advances in Coffee Equipment and Technology

Although no major equipment launches were reported today, industry leaders emphasize innovation to enhance supply chain transparency and sustainability. Embracing technology is seen as essential to maintaining quality and meeting growing consumer expectations amid market challenges (Magazine.Coffee, 6 September 2025).