Coffee Prices Surge Amid Brazil Drought; Portland Coffee Festival Debuts

Global Coffee Prices Soar on Brazil Drought and La Niña Forecast

Coffee prices surged to levels not seen in 25 years, driven by dry weather forecasts in Brazil, the world’s largest arabica producer. Brazil’s crop forecasting agency, Conab, cut its 2025 arabica coffee production estimate by nearly 5%, intensifying concerns over supply. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) increased the likelihood of a La Niña event from October to December, potentially bringing excessive dryness that threatens Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. Concurrently, Brazil’s coffee exports declined sharply in July, with arabica exports down 21% year-over-year, supporting price increases globally. Vietnam’s production is also impacted by heavy rains, adding to supply challenges. These factors contributed to record arabica futures prices reaching $4.24 per pound recently at the New York Intercontinental Exchange (Nasdaq, 4 October 2025; Economic Times, 4 October 2025).

US Coffee Market Faces Inflation and Tariff Challenges

The US branded coffee shop market grew modestly by 4.2% to $58.5 billion but faces slowing outlet expansion due to rising commodity prices, inflation, and trade tariffs. Major chains like Starbucks are adjusting operations, including closing hundreds of company-owned stores. Meanwhile, the drive-thru segment shows robust growth, led by Dutch Bros and emerging players such as Black Rock Coffee Bar following recent IPOs. The US coffee industry welcomes the proposed ‘No Coffee Tax Act,’ which aims to repeal tariffs that have increased costs for roasters and consumers. Industry leaders emphasize that tariff relief would stabilize supply chains and potentially curb further price hikes (World Coffee Portal, 4 October 2025; Food Navigator USA, 3 October 2025).

Portland Coffee Festival Launches with Industry and Community Focus

The inaugural Portland Coffee Festival takes place today at The Redd on Salmon Street in Portland, Oregon. Organized by Roast magazine and sponsored by Pacific Foods, the event offers a full day of educational sessions, tastings, and community engagement celebrating Portland’s global coffee hub status. Highlights include a Kann Coffee pop-up featuring coffee-inspired culinary creations, latte art demonstrations by 2022 US Barista Champion Morgan Eckroth, and curated tastings of award-winning roaster coffees and various coffee processing methods. The festival also features an outdoor beverage area offering beer, cider, and wine (Daily Coffee News, 4 October 2025).