Coffee Prices Surge Amid Weather Woes and Market Shifts on Oct 18, 2025

Global Coffee Prices Spike Amid Weather and Tariff Pressures

Arabica coffee futures in New York surged above $4 per pound due to persistent dry weather in Brazil’s coffee belt, where rainfall was less than half the historical average last week, pushing prices to a three-week high of 405.25 cents during trading (Comunicaffe, 18 Oct 2025). Meanwhile, Vietnam’s robusta production outlook remains strong with abundant rainfall expected, causing ICE Robusta prices to decline (Comunicaffe, 18 Oct 2025). The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a slight year-on-year increase in global coffee exports by 0.2% for the current marketing year, suggesting adequate supply but regional imbalances persist (Nasdaq, 18 Oct 2025).

In the US market, coffee prices have climbed roughly 55% over the past year, fueled by tariffs and supply chain disruptions. Brazilian coffee exports to the US dropped nearly 53% as importers seek beans from Mexico, Peru, and Ethiopia (The Peninsula Qatar, 18 Oct 2025). Retailers like Birch in New York have raised prices by 50 cents per cup and $2-$3 per bag to offset costs, while some cafes implement adjustable premiums based on tariff levels (The Peninsula Qatar, 18 Oct 2025). Overall, US roasted coffee prices jumped 20.9% year-on-year in August, marking the highest rise since 1997 (Economic Times India, 18 Oct 2025).

Industry Moves: Investments and Product Innovations

Starboard Capital has taken a stake in Keurig Dr Pepper amid an $18 billion acquisition interest by JDE Peet’s, reflecting heightened investor scrutiny in coffee sector strategies (Perfect Daily Grind, 17 Oct 2025). In China, Carlyle and Boyu have emerged as preferred bidders for a majority stake in Starbucks China, valuing the business near $4 billion with Starbucks likely retaining minority interest and royalty arrangements under negotiation (Perfect Daily Grind, 17 Oct 2025).

Product innovation continues with Pact Coffee expanding its decaf line in UK supermarkets, introducing Bourbon Cream Decaf ground coffee available in 135 Waitrose stores (Perfect Daily Grind, 17 Oct 2025). Equipment collaborations include La Marzocco partnering with Victorinox to launch a multi-function Barista Tool and co-branded espresso machines, blending high-quality Swiss blades with Italian espresso heritage (Perfect Daily Grind, 17 Oct 2025).

Supply Chain and Export Highlights

IPB University and Astra mentored a village exporting 15 tons of Bajawa Arabica coffee to Thailand, showcasing emerging coffee origins expanding into international markets (IPB University News, 18 Oct 2025). Meanwhile, the International Coffee Council meeting in Honduras is underway, focusing on the ratification of the ICO 2022 Agreement, global market state, and fostering bilateral trade relations crucial for major producers and importers like Brazil and the US (Comunicaffe, 18 Oct 2025).

Market Outlook and Challenges

The coffee industry faces ongoing volatility with concerns over Brazil’s dry weather and US tariffs disrupting supply chains. Despite challenges, demand remains resilient, with companies actively sourcing alternatives and advising roasters to manage price volatility through forward purchasing strategies (Royal New York Market Watch, 18 Oct 2025). Vietnam’s projected 6.9% production increase in 2025/26 may help balance the market, but a global arabica deficit is still forecasted by Volcafe (Nasdaq, 18 Oct 2025).

Disclaimer: This press review reports data and trends from third-party published sources. CoffeeBI is not responsible for the accuracy of the figures or the content of the original articles. For further insights or tailored analysis on the topic, feel free to contact CoffeeBI.