Coffee Market Update: Vietnam Prices Surge, Saudi Expansion, Brazil Tariffs

Vietnam Coffee Prices Jump Amid Flood Damage

Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam surged again on November 20, reaching 113,700–114,800 VND/kg, up 1,000–1,200 VND/kg from the previous day. Heavy floods have damaged over 5 hectares of coffee nearing harvest, further tightening supply. Despite the domestic spike, international prices fell, with Robusta coffee in London down 29 USD/ton to 4,545 USD/ton for November 2025 delivery and 69 USD/ton to 4,504 USD/ton for January 2026. Arabica prices in New York also declined. Vietnam’s coffee exports for the 2024–2025 crop year hit 8.4 billion USD, up over 55% year-on-year, but stricter EU sustainability and quality standards are pressuring producers to adapt. Bayer, in partnership with local agencies, has launched a sustainable coffee cultivation model in Dak Lak, aiming to boost yields by 10–15% and meet export requirements (Baonghean, 20 November 2025).

Saudi Arabia Targets Tenfold Coffee Production Increase

Saudi Arabia’s Sustainable Agricultural Rural Development Program (Saudi Reef) announced plans to increase national coffee production from 800 tons to 7,000 tons by year-end, aiming to raise self-sufficiency from 0.5% to 4.4%. The initiative, supported by the FAO, will focus on boosting production, processing, and marketing, with a goal of planting 50,000 coffee seedlings and increasing productivity by 30% by 2025. The program is part of Saudi Vision 2030 and aims to diversify agriculture and improve livelihoods for smallholder farmers (GCR Magazine, 20 November 2025).

Brazilian Coffee Faces 40% Tariff Despite Trade Agreements

Brazil’s vice president confirmed that coffee, beef, and tropical fruit exports to the U.S. will remain subject to a 40% tariff, despite recent trade agreements with other Latin American countries. The move is expected to further pressure Brazilian coffee producers, who are already grappling with reduced harvest forecasts and rising input costs. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that coffee prices have risen 21% over the past year, driven by supply chain disruptions, weather issues in Brazil and Southeast Asia, and low inventories. The exclusion of Brazil from tariff reductions could impact global coffee prices and roaster sourcing strategies (IBJ, 16 November 2025; WJAR, 15 November 2025).

Tenom’s Yit Foh Coffee Expands Product Range and Retail Presence

Yit Foh Coffee Factory Sdn Bhd in Tenom, Malaysia, continues to expand its product portfolio, now offering around 30 items, including traditional ground coffee and new variants like Matcha Latte and Velesa coffee. The company has opened two new Kopitiam outlets in Kota Kinabalu and is targeting further expansion across Sabah. Yit Foh relies on local Robusta beans and supports small-scale growers, contributing to the region’s economic development. The brand is also attracting international tourists and seeking government support for training and funding to strengthen the local coffee industry (Bernama, 20 November 2025).

Global Coffee Supply Tightens as Brazil and Colombia Report Production Shifts

Brazil’s CONAB reduced its 2025 coffee production forecast by 0.9% to 55.2 million bags, citing weather and pest pressures. Meanwhile, Colombia’s National Coffee Growers Federation reported a 47.37% increase in December production compared to the previous year. The International Coffee Organisation (ICO) maintains its global supply estimate at 5.83% below the 2022/2023 level, with certified Arabica stocks on the New York exchange falling to 847,805 bags. These trends highlight ongoing volatility in global coffee supply and the importance of diversified sourcing for roasters and traders (Nasdaq, 19 November 2025; I. & M. Smith, 10 November 2025).