Global Coffee Market Faces Tariff Shocks Amid Robust Growth in 2025

Tariff Impact on Brazilian Coffee Exports
On August 7, 2025, Arabica coffee futures dropped 1.77% and Robusta 0.53% due to concerns over a newly proposed 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports. This tariff threatens to reduce Brazil’s shipments to the U.S., potentially increasing domestic stockpiles and applying downward pressure on global prices. Arabica stocks are currently at a 14.5-month low, while Robusta inventories have reached a one-year high, indicating bearish price pressure for Robusta beans (Qahwa World, 2025-08-07).

Global Production and Export Dynamics
Global coffee production is forecasted to reach a record 178.68 million bags in the 2025/26 season, up 2.5% from the previous year. June 2025 saw a 7.3% year-over-year increase in global coffee exports, totaling 11.69 million bags, though cumulative exports from October to June slightly decreased by 0.2% (International Coffee Organization, 2025-08-07).

Market Size and Growth Projections
The global coffee market continues its robust expansion, with total revenue projected at USD 473.1 billion in 2025. At-home consumption revenue is expected to reach USD 96.45 billion, while out-of-home coffee sales in restaurants and cafés are forecasted at USD 376.7 billion (GourmetPro, 2025-05-27). The market is predicted to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.9% through 2029, driven by consumer preference shifts, convenience trends, and premiumization (Research and Markets, 2025-01-01).

Demographic and Regional Influences
Younger generations, particularly Gen Z, are starting coffee consumption earlier and embracing diverse formats including specialty brews and functional infusions. Emerging markets in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Asia — including Indonesia, India, and Vietnam — are rapidly developing café cultures and increasing coffee demand (GourmetPro, 2025-05-27). Asia, with 60% of the global population and a median age of 31, is a key growth region.

Specialty Coffee and Functional Brews Trend
Specialty coffee remains a strong market segment emphasizing quality, ethical sourcing, and innovative consumer experiences. Functional brews such as mushroom coffee and adaptogen-infused blends are gaining popularity, especially among wellness-focused Gen Z consumers. These trends merge coffee consumption with health and cognitive benefits, revitalizing instant coffee formats with freeze-dried specialty blends for convenience (Tastewise, 2025-07-07; Perfect Daily Grind, 2025-08-08).

Technology and Market Innovation
The adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is enhancing the coffee industry’s growth by improving precision agriculture and crop health prediction, thus optimizing coffee quality. AI-driven consumer data analysis supports tailored product offerings and efficient supply chain management, contributing to steady global market growth projected to reach USD 381.52 billion by 2034 at a CAGR of 4.52% (Precedence Research, 2025-08-11).

Disclaimer: This press review reports data and trends from third-party published sources. CoffeeBI is not responsible for the accuracy of the figures or the content of the original articles. For further insights or tailored analysis on the topic, feel free to contact CoffeeBI.