Coffee Market & Industry Daily Review – Dec 10

Arabica and Robusta prices rebound on global supply concerns

Global coffee prices rose on December 10, 2025, driven by renewed concerns over supply tightness in both Arabica and Robusta markets. On the New York ICE exchange, Arabica futures showed strong gains across all nearby contracts, with the December 2025 contract up 3.45 cents/lb to 399.50 cents/lb, while the May 2026 contract climbed 6.00 cents/lb to 354.80 cents/lb. The rally reflects growing market anxiety over Brazil’s 2025–26 Arabica crop, which is under pressure from prolonged dry conditions in Minas Gerais and irregular flowering patterns. At the same time, London Robusta also gained momentum, supported by delayed Vietnamese harvests and strong speculative buying interest. Certified Arabica stocks on ICE remain at historically low levels, down 54.96% year-to-date as of late November, adding further upward pressure to prices. (Báo Kinh tế & Đô thị, 9 December 2025, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlBxlYedn6M)

Conab raises Brazil 2025 coffee output forecast, but Arabica still down

Brazil’s crop forecasting agency Conab has revised its 2025 coffee production estimate upward by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, up 4.3% from 2024 and marking the third-largest output on record despite an “off-year” in the Arabica biennial cycle. However, within this total, Arabica production is projected at 35.8 million bags, down 9.7% due to drought, irregular flowering and smaller bean size in Minas Gerais and São Paulo. Robusta (Conilon) production is expected to hit a record 20.8 million bags. The higher overall forecast is tempering some price strength, but historically low certified Arabica stocks and ongoing weather concerns continue to support a tight market structure. (Trading Economics, 10 December 2025, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee)

Colombia accelerates shift from washed to co-fermented coffees

Colombia is undergoing a strategic transformation in coffee production, moving beyond its traditional washed-coffee identity toward experimental and co-fermented lots. The country has become a global hub for fermentation experimentation, with younger producers using farms and labs as test sites to diversify cup profiles. At the 2025 Global Coffee Awards, Colombian producers dominated the experimental categories, prompting the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros (FNC) to begin restructuring internal quality guidelines and classifications. A recent landmark agreement with the Specialty Coffee Association acknowledges that Colombian coffees are no longer judged solely by washed-coffee criteria. Cenicafé has also launched four new varieties – Celestra, Castalia, Cocoon and Castillo 2.0 – designed for diverse processing methods and targeted consumer preferences. (Intelligence.coffee, 10 December 2025, https://intelligence.coffee/2025/12/from-washed-to-co-ferments-colombia/)

China’s coffee and tea market on track to exceed ¥1 trillion in 2025

China’s combined coffee and tea market is projected to surpass ¥1 trillion ($141 billion) in 2025, driven by intense competition, rapid innovation and evolving consumer habits. Major players are industrializing at scale, with brands like Luckin Coffee and Mixue building highly efficient supply chains and training large workforces on dynamic menus. A key growth opportunity lies in establishing new daily consumption rituals, particularly in the morning, where Chinese café chains have not yet matched the peak traffic patterns seen in markets like the US. The silver generation is emerging as a highly active early-morning consumer segment, opening new opportunities for cafés to become part of daily routines. (Chinaskinny.com, 10 December 2025, https://chinaskinny.com/blog/milk-tea-coffee-china-lessons)

Vietnam domestic coffee prices drop sharply to 2.5-month low

Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam fell sharply on December 10, 2025, reaching a 2.5-month low of 2,100 VND/kg. The decline reflects a combination of local trade dynamics, delayed harvest timing and weaker-than-expected export demand in certain channels. Despite the domestic drop, global Robusta prices remain supported by tight supply expectations and strong speculative interest, creating a divergence between international benchmarks and local Vietnamese pricing. Weather conditions and ongoing farmer holding behavior continue to influence short-term price volatility in the key producing regions. (Báo Nghệ An, 10 December 2025, https://baonghean.vn/en/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-10-12-2025-giam-manh-cham-day-2-5-thang-10314567.html)