Global coffee markets, equipment and brand updates — Daily Press Review

Brazil and global supply outlook: USDA raises 2025/26 world production forecast

The USDA forecasted a record world coffee production of 178.8 million bags for 2025/26, driven by recoveries in Vietnam and record crops in Indonesia and Ethiopia, while Brazil and Colombia face declines. (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, December 2025, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf)

Market reaction: Arabica futures near multi-month lows amid harvest pressure

Arabica futures traded around four‑month lows as newly harvested beans and improved weather prospects in Brazil weighed on prices, though low inventories continue to underpin the market. (Trading Economics, December 2025, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee/news/511840)

Rabobank outlook: longer-term surplus anticipated

Rabobank projected a surplus building into 2026/27 with Arabica prices likely to ease by about a third by late 2026 if production surpluses materialise, while warning that current stock levels remain low. (Comunicaffe, 22 December 2025, https://www.comunicaffe.com/coffee-prices-rebound-in-the-first-session-of-the-week-rabobank-forecasts-arabica-futures-to-fall-by-a-third-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2026/)

Southeast Asia: harvests and supply dynamics

Vietnam reported new-harvest beans beginning to accumulate in market channels, while trading in Indonesia was muted due to holidays — signalling short-term local supply build-up. (The Manila Times, 26 December 2025, https://www.manilatimes.net/2025/12/26/business/foreign-business/coffee-supplies-build-up-in-vietnam-indonesia-muted-on-holidays/2249467)

Brand & company news: regional retail and finance updates

Latvia’s Kalve Coffee posted strong sales and outlined plans for Western Europe expansion after robust Q3 performance, highlighting continued specialty-roaster internationalisation. (Perfect Daily Grind, 12 December 2025, https://perfectdailygrind.com/2025/12/coffee-news-recap-12-december-2025/)

Equipment & technology: sector equipment demand tied to market shifts

Industry commentary during recent market reports emphasised that improvements in supply and harvest timing are shifting near-term demand for roasting and processing equipment as mills and roasters adapt to incoming crop volumes. (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, December 2025, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf)

Trade & logistics: stocks and port inventory concerns persist

Despite harvest recoveries, certified stocks in major ports remain historically tight, with ICE Arabica certified stocks still much lower than a year prior, signalling continuing logistical sensitivity for exporters and importers. (Comunicaffe, 22 December 2025, https://www.comunicaffe.com/coffee-prices-rebound-in-the-first-session-of-the-week-rabobank-forecasts-arabica-futures-to-fall-by-a-third-in-the-fourth-quarter-of-2026/)

Regional production detail: Brazil and Colombia trends

USDA modeling expects Brazil’s combined output to decline in 2025/26 while Colombia’s output is also revised down due to weather impacts — adjustments that feed into the global balance and trade flows. (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, December 2025, https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/circulars/coffee.pdf)

Research & analysis highlights: price drivers and supply cycles

Analysts cite the biennial production cycle, recent climate volatility in Brazil and currents harvest flows from Vietnam and Indonesia as the main price drivers for the coming quarters. (Trading Economics, December 2025, https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coffee/news/511840)

Disclaimer: This press review reports data and trends from third-party published sources. CoffeeBI is not responsible for the accuracy of the figures or the content of the original articles. For further insights or tailored analysis on the topic, feel free to contact CoffeeBI.