Coffee Prices Surge Amid Tightening ICE Inventories and Export Drops

Global Coffee Prices Surge on Tight ICE Inventories

Global coffee prices experienced a sharp rally on September 24 and 25, 2025, driven by a significant drawdown in inventories monitored by the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Arabica coffee inventories hit a 17.5-month low at 601,717 bags, while robusta inventories dropped to a 1.75-month low of 6,464 lots. This inventory tightening, combined with the 50% tariff imposed by the US on Brazilian coffee imports, has created bullish market conditions as American buyers reduce new Brazilian coffee contracts, tightening US supply chains. Arabica futures for December 2025 rose 5.03%, and robusta futures increased by 2.45% (Nasdaq, 25 September 2025; Barchart.com, 25 September 2025; Berawang News, 25 September 2025).

Brazil’s Coffee Exports Decline Sharply

Brazil’s coffee export volumes continue to decrease significantly. According to Brazilian trade and exporter groups, July 2025 exports of green coffee fell by 28% year-over-year to 2.7 million bags, with arabica down 21% and robusta down 49%. The cumulative drop in exports during January to July 2025 is approximately 21%. This export reduction contributes to the tightening supply and supports the upward price pressure globally (Nasdaq, 25 September 2025).

Domestic Price Movements in Vietnam Reflect Market Volatility

Despite rising global prices, Vietnam’s Central Highlands coffee prices dropped sharply on September 25, 2025, by 2,800 to 3,000 VND/kg, settling between 110,500 and 111,500 VND/kg. This contrasts with the international market where both arabica and robusta prices increased significantly, reflecting localized market dynamics and weather concerns. Heavy rains forecasted in Vietnam’s main growing areas raise supply risk concerns, supporting global price gains (Baonghean.vn, 25 September 2025; YouTube – Kinh tế và Đô thị, 25 September 2025).

Innovation and Technology in Coffee Equipment

Today’s industry updates also highlight ongoing advancements in coffee machine technology, focusing on automation and energy efficiency. Leading equipment manufacturers are unveiling new models designed to optimize extraction quality and reduce environmental impact, responding to both market demands and sustainability goals. These innovations aim to enhance consistency and reduce waste in coffee preparation across commercial and specialty sectors (Barista Magazine, 25 September 2025).

Market and Regulatory Trends

The coffee sector faces complex challenges including tariffs, climate change, and supply chain disruptions. The US tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports are a key factor influencing price surges and supply constraints. Additionally, climate-related risks to key producing regions continue to affect production forecasts and export capabilities. Industry organizations emphasize the need for diversification of coffee varieties and investment in resilient agricultural practices to mitigate these risks (Tax Research UK, 25 September 2025).