September 26, 2025: Coffee Prices Drop Amid Brazil Harvest, New Market Dynamics
Brazil’s Coffee Harvest Nears Completion, Impacting Prices
The world’s largest coffee cooperative, Cooxupe, reported that its members in Brazil had completed 98.9% of the 2025 harvest by September 12. This near completion has exerted bearish pressure on coffee prices, particularly arabica, as the harvest supplies increase. Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee production is forecasted to rise slightly by 0.5% year-on-year to 65 million bags, contributing to the global supply dynamics (Nasdaq, 26 Sep 2025).
Sharp Decline in Coffee Futures Prices
On September 24, coffee futures prices plunged significantly, with December arabica coffee dropping 8.23% and November robusta falling by 6.92%. This decline followed a week of earlier price gains fueled by dry weather concerns in Brazil’s coffee regions. Recent rainfall forecasts have eased these concerns, leading to price corrections. The price drop reflects market reactions to harvest progress and weather patterns affecting flowering and pollination in Brazil (Barchart.com, 26 Sep 2025).
Trade Talks Between US and Brazil Influence Market Sentiment
Anticipation of a meeting between US President Donald Trump and the Brazilian President next week has introduced cautious optimism regarding the potential revision of the 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee imports imposed earlier in 2025. This tariff has previously supported price rallies by limiting US buyer access to Brazilian coffee. Traders remain watchful as the outcome of these talks could significantly alter trade flows and pricing (ADM Investor Services, 26 Sep 2025).
Vietnam Faces Tropical Storm Threats Affecting Coffee Regions
Vietnam’s coffee-growing areas, particularly in the north, are forecasted to face impacts from two tropical cyclones, Typhoon Ragasa and Tropical Storm Bualoi, over the next week. While the central coffee region is less affected, flooding and damage in northern areas could disrupt supply and export logistics, potentially influencing robusta coffee availability (ADM Investor Services, 26 Sep 2025).
Domestic Market Stability in Vietnam Amid Global Volatility
Vietnam’s domestic coffee market shows signs of stability with prices holding steady or increasing slightly by 200 to 400 VND per kilogram in key growing provinces such as Đắk Lắk and Gia Lai. This local price resilience occurs despite volatility in global coffee markets, reflecting regional supply-demand balance and possibly strategic stock management by producers (PhoNui TV, 26 Sep 2025).
Industry-Wide Market Trends and Outlook
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects a global coffee production increase of 2.5% year-on-year to a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025/26 season. However, arabica production is expected to decline by 1.7%, while robusta production is forecasted to rise by 7.9%. Despite higher production, analysts such as Volcafe anticipate a widening global deficit in arabica coffee by 8.5 million bags in 2025/26, marking the fifth consecutive year of deficits. Ending stocks are expected to increase moderately (Nasdaq, 26 Sep 2025).
Technological and Equipment Updates
No new coffee machine or equipment technology updates were published today within the reviewed sources. Industry focus remains on market fundamentals and trade developments.
Disclaimer: This press review reports data and trends from third-party published sources. CoffeeBI is not responsible for the accuracy of the figures or the content of the original articles. For further insights or tailored analysis on the topic, feel free to contact CoffeeBI.