Coffee Prices Surge Amid Supply Tightening and New Market Trends

Global Coffee Prices Rise Driven by Tight Supplies and Trade Disruptions

Global coffee prices have surged notably on September 3 and 4, 2025, fueled by tightening supplies and trade challenges. December arabica futures increased by 0.89%, while robusta contracts gained 1.25%, rebounding after recent declines. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a 1.6% year-on-year drop in July 2025 coffee exports, with cumulative exports from October to July also down 0.3%. Inventory levels are at multi-month lows, with robusta stocks at a one-month low and arabica stocks at their lowest in over a year. U.S. buyers have reduced purchases of Brazilian coffee following a 50% tariff on imports, further constraining availability in the American market. Despite these pressures, USDA forecasts a 2.5% increase in global coffee production for 2025/26, driven by a 7.9% rise in robusta output, though arabica production is expected to decline by 1.7%. Trader Volcafé anticipates an 8.5 million bag arabica deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the fifth consecutive year of shortfall in this variety (Qahwa World, 4 September 2025; Nasdaq, 4 September 2025).

Trade Policies and Regulatory Pressures Impact Supply Chains

Trade policy developments are intensifying supply challenges. The U.S. 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee has prompted American buyers to cancel contracts, tightening market availability. Additionally, the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) continues to pressure producers to meet sustainability standards, affecting sourcing and export strategies. Weather-related disruptions, including frost in Brazil, add further uncertainty to supply chains for the 2025/26 coffee year (ICO August Report, 4 September 2025).

Asia-Pacific Roasted Decaffeinated Coffee Market Projected to Grow

The Asia-Pacific market for roasted decaffeinated coffee is forecast to expand steadily over the next decade, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.0% in volume and 2.3% in value, reaching 79,000 tons and $574 million by 2035. This growth reflects increasing consumer demand and evolving preferences in the region (IndexBox, 5 September 2025).

DVG De Vecchi Celebrates 60 Years with Social Campaign

Italian coffee machine components manufacturer DVG De Vecchi marks its 60th anniversary with the launch of a social media campaign titled “Coffee Break Stories.” The campaign highlights the company’s history, values, and key milestones through six episodes featuring archives, interviews, and testimonies. DVG emphasizes its commitment to sustainability, automation, and digital transformation as it looks to the future (Comunicaffe.it, 5 September 2025).

London-Based Specialty Coffee Brand Shot Announces Egypt Expansion

Shot, a London-based specialty coffee group known for its premium Japanese V60 coffee, has signed a strategic partnership with Horizon Egypt to open its first outlet in Cairo in 2026. This marks Shot’s continued expansion across the Middle East and North Africa region (World Coffee Portal, 5 September 2025).