Brazil Raises 2025 Coffee Crop Outlook Amid Asia’s Demand Surge

Brazil Boosts 2025 Coffee Crop Estimates

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) raised its coffee crop forecast for 2025 to 56.5 million bags, up 4.3% from the previous year and exceeding earlier estimates of 55.2 million bags. Arabica production is expected to reach 35.76 million bags, while robusta is forecasted at a record 20.77 million bags. Improved weather conditions and better average yields supported this revision. The rise in output has attracted strong buying interest from U.S. roasters, particularly after the removal of tariffs on Brazilian agricultural goods, which has bolstered market confidence. ICE certified arabica stocks also increased to their highest since early November, reflecting this positive momentum (Conab, 7 December 2025; Reuters, 7 December 2025).

Asia Emerges as a New Coffee Consumption Powerhouse

Asia’s coffee demand has surged by 14.5% since 2018, with China’s café market expanding by 58% in 2023 to over 50,000 stores, overtaking the U.S. as the largest branded coffee shop market globally. Indonesia’s domestic coffee consumption has tripled since pre-pandemic levels, and India’s coffee industry is projected to double by 2030, driven by a growing urban middle class and café culture. This rapid growth in Asia is set to become the main driver of global coffee demand, potentially reshaping trade routes, brand strategies, and investment flows within the coffee sector. Roasting and ready-to-drink production facilities are increasing in Southeast Asia to meet domestic and regional market needs (Coffee Intelligence, 7 December 2025).

Coffee Price Fluctuations and Market Trends

Global coffee prices experienced a mild decline recently, with prices falling to around $408.30 per pound on December 5, down 0.89% from the previous day. Despite short-term dips, coffee prices remain elevated, up over 23% compared to the previous year, supported by tight supplies due to poor harvests in Brazil and extreme weather impacts in Vietnam. Traders remain cautious amid speculative activity, but overall demand remains robust. Domestic coffee prices in Vietnam remained steady, while export values have increased by 60%, reflecting resilient market conditions (Trading Economics, 7 December 2025; Baonghean News, 7 December 2025).

Innovations in Coffee Equipment

SEB Professional Beverage, part of Groupe SEB, consolidated its five key coffee and beverage brands under one umbrella to differentiate itself in a competitive equipment market. Meanwhile, Eversys is preparing to unveil new coffee solutions with input from international distributors, aiming to enhance product offerings at upcoming industry events. Additionally, coffee scale maker Acaia launched the Pyxis Black, a precision scale measuring to the thousandth of a gram, catering to specialty coffee professionals seeking accuracy in brewing (Global Coffee Report, 7 December 2025; Daily Coffee News, 7 December 2025).