Brazil Coffee Output Up, Prices Dip as Supply Outlook Brightens

Brazil Coffee Production Forecast Revised Upwards

Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest is projected to reach 56.54 million bags, marking the third-largest output on record despite a typical off-year for Arabica, according to Conab’s updated estimate. Robusta production is expected to hit a record 20.8 million bags, while Arabica is forecasted to decrease by 9.7% due to adverse weather and flowering conditions in key regions. This increase in supply contributed to a decline in coffee futures prices, with New York’s Arabica contracts falling nearly 1.5% to 374.34 cents per pound and London contracts down 5.9% since December began. The easing of the EU Deforestation Regulation also helped reduce market tensions. However, USDA data presents a contrasting outlook with a lower Arabica estimate but higher Robusta production, totaling 63 million bags for Brazil’s crop year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise slightly but may be pressured by retail price hikes that have already caused a 5.5% consumption decline in early 2025 (Comunicaffe.it, 9 December 2025; TradingEconomics.com, 9 December 2025).

Coffee Prices Decline Amid Ample Supply Outlook

Global coffee prices declined recently, with coffee futures dropping 2.46% on December 8 to $3.96 per pound, pressured by a softening Brazilian real and expectations of abundant supplies from Brazil and Vietnam. Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is forecasted to increase by 6.9% year-over-year to a four-year high of 31 million bags, contributing further to bearish price pressure. ICE coffee inventories have experienced a drawdown but showed a slight recovery, supporting some price stability. The recent removal of U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee may also contribute to increased supply availability in the U.S. market, although relief for roasters and consumers is expected to take time due to pre-existing inventory orders (Nasdaq, 9 December 2025; BaristaMagazine.com, 9 December 2025; TradingEconomics.com, 9 December 2025).

Kelachandra Coffee Implements Hyperlocal Climate Intelligence

Kelachandra Coffee has partnered with Deepflow Technologies to deploy hyperlocal climate intelligence solutions in the Chikmagalur region of India. This initiative aims to provide real-time weather and microclimate data to coffee growers to optimize farm management and improve crop resilience against climatic variability. The move reflects growing industry adoption of technology-driven approaches to enhance sustainability and productivity in coffee cultivation (AsiaFoodJournal.com, 9 December 2025).