Global Coffee Market Update: Falling Prices, Machine Growth & Tariff Impacts

The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported a significant 11.8% drop in coffee prices in July 2025 compared to June, with the ICO Composite Indicator Price averaging 259.31 US cents per pound. This decline reflects ongoing global economic uncertainties, including recent US import tariff announcements, although prices remain 9.6% above July 2024 levels (ICO, 2025-08-07)[1]. The supply-demand balance for coffee in the 2024/25 year is projected to be in surplus but insufficient to rebuild stocks in major destination markets.

In parallel, the coffee machine market is experiencing robust growth worldwide. Valued at approximately USD 18.9 billion in 2025, it is forecast to reach USD 25.26 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.97%. The Asia-Pacific region leads this expansion, expected to grow at 7.7% CAGR, driven by rising coffee consumption and the growth of at-home coffee culture (Mordor Intelligence, 2025-06-25)[2].

Technological innovations are key growth drivers, especially the proliferation of smart coffee machines that offer remote brewing, personalized recipes, and predictive maintenance, enhancing consumer convenience and loyalty. Capsule and pod machines are the fastest-growing segment, with a projected 7.5% CAGR, supported by demand for convenience and single-serve solutions (Mordor Intelligence, 2025-06-25)[2].

In the US market, the coffee machine sector is expected to grow steadily at around 6% CAGR through 2030, fuelled by increased coffee consumption among millennials and Gen Z. The single-serve machine segment is especially prominent, benefitting from lifestyle shifts favoring convenience. Moreover, sustainability is influencing design trends, with machines focusing on reusable pods and energy-efficient operation (MarkWide Research, 2025-01-13)[4].

The US coffee industry faces additional pressure following a 50% tariff increase on Brazilian coffee imports, effective August 6, 2025. This measure, part of the Trump administration’s trade policy, is expected to impact US consumers directly and may drive Brazilian exporters to pivot towards other markets such as China (World Coffee Portal, 2025-08-01)[3].

Meanwhile, the global self-service coffee machine market is projected to nearly double from USD 6.46 billion in 2024 to USD 13.69 billion by 2034, propelled by urbanization, expanding retail sectors, and growing coffee enthusiasm among younger demographics. Western Europe currently leads in market value, but Asia Pacific and Africa are the fastest-growing regions (ResearchAndMarkets, 2025-06-03)[8].

Regarding coffee shop chains and major brands, Coca-Cola’s $5.1 billion acquisition of Costa Coffee faces strategic reevaluation amid changing market realities, reflecting broader shifts in the coffee sector’s competitive landscape (Intelligence.Coffee, 2025-08)[5].

Overall, the coffee industry continues to navigate complex dynamics: falling coffee prices amid economic uncertainty, tariff-induced trade shifts, and strong growth in coffee machine innovation and consumption worldwide. Sustainability and technology remain pivotal trends shaping both consumer preferences and product development.

Disclaimer: This press review reports data and trends from third-party published sources. CoffeeBI is not responsible for the accuracy of the figures or the content of the original articles. For further insights or tailored analysis on the topic, feel free to contact CoffeeBI.