Coffee Market & Machine Trends 2025: Tariffs, Tech & Consumption
Global coffee prices declined recently amid tariff concerns and supply shifts. On August 7, 2025, Arabica futures dropped 1.77% and Robusta 0.53% due to fears of a 50% U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, potentially reducing Brazil’s shipments and increasing domestic stockpiles (Qahwa World, 2025-08-07). This has caused market uncertainty despite June’s global coffee exports rising 7.3% year-over-year to 11.69 million bags, although the cumulative exports from October to June dipped slightly by 0.2% (Qahwa World, 2025-08-07).
Brazil’s Minas Gerais region reported low rainfall—only 2.7 mm for the week ending August 2—just 31% of normal levels, which could impact future Arabica yields (Qahwa World, 2025-08-07). Meanwhile, Arabica inventories hit a 14.5-month low, while Robusta stocks rose to a one-year high, indicating bearish pressure on Robusta prices (Qahwa World, 2025-08-07).
The U.S. coffee industry braces for the impact of the new 50% tariff on Brazilian imports effective August 6, 2025. This levy is expected to increase costs for U.S. consumers and may push Brazilian exporters to pivot towards markets like China (World Coffee Portal, 2025-08-01). Notably, major U.S. coffee chains and brands like Peet’s Coffee have secured strategic deals, such as Peet’s partnership with a major U.S. airline, reflecting efforts to sustain growth despite tariff challenges (World Coffee Portal, 2025-07-31).
The global coffee machine market is projected to reach USD 25.26 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 5.97%. Growth drivers include rising global coffee consumption—especially in Asia-Pacific—and expansion of specialty coffee chains (Mordor Intelligence, 2025-06-25). Residential buyers currently represent 70% of market revenue and continue to drive growth with a 6.2% CAGR forecast (Mordor Intelligence, 2025-06-25). Capsule and pod coffee machines show the fastest growth, with a 7.5% CAGR anticipated, supported by consumer demand for convenience (Mordor Intelligence, 2025-06-25).
Technological advances such as smart connectivity enable remote brewing, recipe customization, and predictive maintenance, enhancing user experience and loyalty (Mordor Intelligence, 2025-06-25). Environmental concerns have prompted manufacturers to develop energy-efficient machines and recyclable pods, aligning with corporate decarbonization targets especially in Europe and North America (Mordor Intelligence, 2025-06-25).
Espresso machines dominate consumer interest, peaking during holiday seasons. Search trends from June 2024 to June 2025 show espresso machines leading over single-serve and drip machines, with highest search volumes in December and January, correlating with gift buying and promotions (Accio, 2025-06-05). The Nespresso category experienced a 52.1% surge in July 2024, driven by flavor quality and ease of use, though noise and leakage issues were noted by some users (Accio, 2025-06-05).
Recommendations include addressing these durability concerns and bundling cleaning accessories to improve customer satisfaction (Accio, 2025-06-05).
The capsule coffee machine segment is expected to grow steadily, reaching USD 2.23 billion by 2030. This growth is fueled by home brewing trends and ongoing innovations like smart features and compact designs that replicate café experiences (Grand View Research, 2024-01-01). Expanding online retail channels also facilitate wider access to these machines, particularly in North America and Europe (Grand View Research, 2024-01-01).
Major coffee shop chains continue to expand and innovate amid market challenges. Paris Baguette North America plans accelerated outlet growth in H2 2025 (World Coffee Portal, 2025-08-07), while Luckin Coffee reports strong second-quarter growth through supply chain efficiencies (World Coffee Portal, 2025-07-30). Starbucks announced a strategic shift by closing pickup-only stores in the U.S. to focus on full-service outlets, reflecting adaptation to consumer preferences (World Coffee Portal, 2025-07-30).
In Southeast Asia, Chagee sold a stake in its Thai business to accelerate outlet expansion (World Coffee Portal, 2025-07-29), and The Coffee is strengthening its presence in Benelux with a Luxembourg launch (World Coffee Portal, 2025-07-30).
The coffee industry in 2025 is shaped by tariff-induced supply uncertainties, robust growth in coffee machine innovations, and dynamic shifts in coffee shop strategies worldwide. These developments underscore the evolving nature of coffee consumption and technology adoption across global markets.
Disclaimer: This press review reports data and trends from third-party published sources. CoffeeBI is not responsible for the accuracy of the figures or the content of the original articles. For further insights or tailored analysis on the topic, feel free to contact CoffeeBI.